🇨🇳 Nuclear Arsenal of China
Evolution of China Nuclear Arsenal
Overview in 2026
In 2026, China has a total of 600 nuclear warheads, including 24 deployed. They made 45 tests between 1964 and 1996.
China's nuclear force has undergone a historic transformation, moving from a "minimum deterrent" posture to a maturing triad able to threaten U.S. and regional targets on short notice. Beijing has tripled its arsenal in a decade — from roughly 200 warheads in 2015 to an estimated 600 in 2025 — and is scaling every leg of the force faster than any other nuclear-armed state. The September 2025 Victory Day Parade marked the first time China publicly displayed all three legs of its nuclear triad, including several previously undisclosed systems.
China's stockpile stands at approximately 600 warheads, according to FAS and the Pentagon's December 2025 China Military Power Report, which describes the total as being in the "low 600s through 2024." Nearly all warheads remain in central storage — only about 24 are estimated to be deployed on launchers — though this is changing as silo fields are loaded and alert levels rise. The Pentagon projects over 1,000 operational warheads by 2030.
China officially maintains a No First Use (NFU) policy, reaffirmed in its November 2025 Arms Control White Paper. However, the Pentagon assesses Beijing "probably would consider nuclear first use if a conventional military defeat in Taiwan gravely threatened regime survival." China is shifting toward a Launch-on-Warning posture, with at least three early warning satellites in orbit and PLARF brigades conducting rapid-launch readiness drills.
Force structure and major vectors
Land-based missiles
China's land-based force is the backbone of its arsenal, with ~462 operational launchers carrying an estimated 376 warheads:
- DF-5B/C liquid-fuel ICBM (silo-based, 13,000 km range). The DF-5B carries up to 5 MIRVs; the DF-5C, publicly unveiled at the September 2025 parade, carries a multi-megaton warhead. China is expanding from 18 to 48 DF-5 silos across three mountainous sites.
- DF-41 solid-fuel ICBM (road-mobile, 12,000 km, up to 3 MIRVs) — ~28 mobile launchers from three brigades. Beijing's first intercontinental system designed from the outset for MIRVs.
- DF-61 road-mobile ICBM — revealed at the September 2025 parade as a successor to the DF-41, with range of 12,000–15,000 km and capacity for up to 12 MIRVs on a 16-wheel TEL.
- DF-31AG road-mobile ICBM (11,200 km, 1 warhead) — 72 launchers in 7 brigades. In September 2024, China conducted its first trans-Pacific ICBM test since 1980, launching a DF-31AG from Hainan Island 12,000 km to the South Pacific.
- DF-31BJ silo-based variant — unveiled at the September 2025 parade; this is the missile type being loaded into China's three new silo fields.
- DF-26 dual-capable IRBM (~4,000 km, "Guam killer") — ~250 launchers in 7 brigades, with ~100 nuclear warheads assigned. The upgraded DF-26D with a hypersonic glide vehicle was unveiled in September 2025.
- DF-27 conventional ICBM (5,000–8,000 km) with ASBM variant — confirmed deployed by the Pentagon in 2025, carrying a hypersonic glide vehicle.
Silo fields: Three massive complexes containing ~320 new solid-fuel ICBM silos are being populated: - Yumen (Gansu): 120 silos, construction complete since early 2022 - Hami (Xinjiang): 110 silos, construction complete since mid-2022 - Yulin/Ordos (Inner Mongolia): 90 silos
The Pentagon reports over 100 silos loaded with DF-31-class ICBMs. In December 2024, China tested several ICBMs in "quick succession" from silo fields, demonstrating rapid-launch capability.
Sea-based deterrent
- Six Type 094/Jin-class SSBNs now conduct patrols with JL-3 SLBMs (~9,000+ km range, 1 warhead each), replacing the shorter-range JL-2. U.S. STRATCOM in March 2025 officially assessed the Type 094 as China's "first credible naval nuclear deterrent." Each SSBN carries 12 SLBMs, for 72 sea-based warheads total.
- Type 096 SSBN — construction underway at Bohai Shipyard. Expected to carry up to 24 SLBMs, with superior stealth and automation. Entry into service projected for the late 2020s to early 2030s.
Air-delivered systems
- H-6N bomber — now operational with the JingLei-1 (JL-1) air-launched ballistic missile, publicly unveiled at the September 2025 parade. FAS assigns 20 warheads to the H-6N force. The JL-1 (previously known as CH-AS-X-13) is believed to be an air-launched DF-21 variant with a claimed range of ~8,000 km.
- H-20 stealth bomber — a flying-wing design remains in development, but U.S. intelligence now expects it will not become operational until the 2030s, a significant delay from earlier projections.
PLARF corruption crisis
A sweeping anti-corruption purge beginning in 2023 removed the PLARF commander, political commissar, and two former Defense Ministers, with a third wave in October 2025 expelling nine more senior officers. U.S. intelligence reported that corruption had led to missiles filled with water instead of fuel and non-functional silo lids. Paradoxically, the Pentagon assessed that the subsequent investigations "likely resulted in the PLARF repairing the silos, which would have increased the overall operational readiness." More than 60% of China's 136 missile production facilities showed signs of expansion between 2020 and 2025.
Lop Nur testing allegations
In February 2026, the United States accused China of conducting a secret nuclear explosive test at Lop Nur on June 22, 2020, using "decoupling" techniques to muffle detection. Seismic data from a Kazakhstan station detected a magnitude 2.75 event. China denied the allegation. Regardless, significant infrastructure expansion at Lop Nur in 2024 — including new buildings, tunnels, and drill rigs — suggests ongoing weapons development activity.
Warhead production
China is rapidly expanding its warhead manufacturing capacity. Satellite imagery reveals major upgrades at the Pingtong plutonium pit production plant and at least 10 other warhead-related locations. Two CFR-600 fast-breeder reactors under construction at Xiapu could enable significant new plutonium production. The Pentagon assesses China "probably will need to begin producing new plutonium this decade" to sustain its arsenal growth.
Outlook
The Pentagon projects over 1,000 operational warheads by 2030, driven by silo activation, new SSBNs and expanded warhead production — though it dropped its earlier projection of 1,500 by 2035 from the 2025 report. The PLARF will likely finish populating all three silo fields before 2028, giving the force a survivable mix of mobile and fixed ICBMs at high alert. The DF-61's capacity for up to 12 MIRVs means China could surge warhead numbers rapidly simply by loading its new missiles.
The Type 096 SSBN and JL-3 will shift a larger share of the deterrent to sea, complicating U.S. anti-submarine warfare. Absent arms-control constraints — and with New START having lapsed in February 2026 — Beijing faces no external limits on its expansion. China continues to refuse trilateral arms control negotiations, citing the disparity between its arsenal and those of the U.S. and Russia.