Afghanistan Military Forces 🇦🇫

Afghanistan's strategic relevance is defined by the security vacuum left after the collapse of the Islamic Republic. Regionally, powers like China and Russia are increasing their engagement with the Taliban government, driven by interests in regional stability, counter-terrorism, and economic opportunities. This engagement, which includes diplomatic and potential economic and military cooperation, is cautiously moving towards de facto recognition of the Taliban regime. However, relations with Pakistan are strained due to the Taliban's perceived support for Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). At the same time, the regime faces significant internal threats from the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP) and armed opposition groups like the National Resistance Front (NRF), which impacts domestic stability and regional security perceptions.

Military Forces

The Armed Forces of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, established in late 2021, are built upon the remnants of the defeated Afghan National Army (ANA). The force relies almost entirely on military hardware captured from the former ANA, which includes a substantial inventory of U.S.-made small arms, light weapons, and armored vehicles like Humvees and M1117 Guardians. While the Taliban now possess a wide array of equipment, the operational readiness and maintenance of these systems, particularly the more advanced items, are questionable due to a lack of skilled technicians and spare parts.

The ground forces have been reorganized into eight corps, largely mirroring the former ANA's regional commands. This structure provides a national framework, but loyalties are often tied to specific commanders and factions within the Taliban movement. Reports indicate internal power struggles, with the supreme leader attempting to consolidate control and build a loyalist force separate from the main military structure. The air force is in a nascent stage, having inherited a number of aircraft, including helicopters and transport planes. While Taliban officials claim to have repaired some aircraft, the force lacks the trained pilots and maintenance crews to operate a modern air force effectively. There is no significant domestic military industry.

Strategic Trends

The primary internal security challenge is the persistent threat from IS-KP, which conducts attacks against the Taliban, as well as ethnic and religious minorities. This ongoing conflict strains the Taliban's security apparatus. The Taliban's ability to govern and provide security is also contested by armed resistance groups, though these do not pose an existential threat to their rule.

Regionally, Afghanistan's military posture is inward-looking, focused on internal security and consolidating control. However, the Taliban's relationships with various militant groups, including al-Qaeda and TTP, remain a major concern for neighboring countries and the international community. The Taliban's ties to the TTP have led to increased cross-border tensions and military strikes with Pakistan. In the near term, Afghanistan's military will likely continue its transition from an insurgency to a conventional force, but will be constrained by its limited technical capacity, internal factionalism, and the deteriorating state of its inherited equipment.